The report on the 2016 Isle of Man Census was published on 9 March 2017 and will be laid before Tynwald at this week's sitting (21 March). The report showed that the population of the Isle of Man had aged even faster than anticipated, with both lower than expected birth rates and net emigration of young adults making significant contributions.

Part 1 of my analysis covered the impact of reduced births on the population of the Isle of Man. In this blog I plan to explore the ageing of the Island's population since 2011.

The pyramid below shows the new population age-sex profile of the Isle of Man. By 2016, the number of people aged 65 years and over had risen by more 2,200 in the previous five years, an increase of a remarkable 14.8%. The new total of over 17,200 was the largest recorded over-65 population in the Island's history. At the same time the number of people aged under 15 years had dropped by 690, a fall of 4.9%, to 13,300.

Perhaps of even greater concern than the figures offered above is the overall shape of the pyramid. When the largest quinary age groups in any population are those between the ages of 40 years and 64 years, as shown here, it is apparent that these large cohorts will turn 65 over the next 25 years passing out of the working-age population. The Island's population profile shows that the Island will be particularly vulnerable to continued ageing of the population over the next 25 years.

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The graph below superimposes the 2011 population pyramid for the Isle of Man on top of the 2016 pyramid (shown in black). In 2016, nearly every age group over 50 was larger than in 2011 and almost every age group under 50 was smaller. It is unusual to see such pronounced ageing as this in a national population profile.


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One useful measure of a population is its median age. This is the age that divides the population in two with half of the population older and the other half younger. The graph below shows that the median age for the Isle of Man was under 40 years between 1991 and 2001. After 2001, it started to rise. Between 2011 and 2016 it increased by more than 2.3 years giving the highest figure ever recorded in the Isle of Man. With a median age of 44.8 years in 2016, the Island had one of the oldest populations on the planet.

The quartile ages confirm the overall ageing. In 2016 the oldest quarter of the population were all aged over 61.5 years and the youngest quarter included people aged up to 23 years. Both figures showed sharp rises between 2011 and 2016 and both were new record highs for the Isle of Man.


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The map below shows two pieces of information.

The background choropleth map shows how the median age varies across the Island's 24 census districts. The highest median age was recorded in Bride where half of the population was aged over 55 years. Four of the northern parishes, Bride, Ballaugh, Maughold and Lezayre, all had median ages over 50 years. The picture is similar in the south with Rushen, Malew and Port St Mary all showing a median age over 50 years. From west to east across the middle of the Island all census districts had a median age of between 40 and 49 years. The lowest median age was again in Jurby where the youthful prison population help to lower the parish figure.

The proportional squares show how much the median age changed in the Island's census districts. The overall rise of 2.3 years is very close to that experienced in Douglas. Very large increases over over 4 years were experienced in Bride (4.3 years), Michael (4.1 years) and Malew (4.0 years). Increases of between 3.0 and 3.9 were evident in Port St Mary (3.1 years as well as Andreas, Laxey and Port Erin (all 3.0 years). The only are to experience a reduction in the median age was Jurby.


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Between 1955 and 2010 the average age of death in the Isle of Man increased from 69 to 78 years. To put it another way, the average age of death increased by one year every six and a half years. Increasing longevity is one factor, but not the main factor, contributing to our ageing population. The unusually large cohorts in the 40 - 64 years population group are the direct result of past immigration flows involving young working-age people between 1970 and 2001. During these years the largest immigrant groups were often aged in their twenties and almost two thirds of the people currently aged 40 - 64 years were born outside the Isle of Man. In 2016 there were more than 5,400 people aged 65-69 years who had entered the so-called retirement-age group since 2011. This is a reminder that any policy of population expansion needs to be thought through to its conclusion.

In 2013, the Chief Minister Allan Bell expressed the view that the 'biggest threat to the social and economic future of the Isle of Man… (is) the demographic reality that our nation is growing older'. He went on to suggest that: 'without greater economic expansion there will be fewer people to pay for the needs of the elderly'. These comments were said to have caused 'outrage' and led to renewed recognition that the Island values all ages in its population. Today, however, we know that we are not keeping up with either home care or care homes for the growing elderly population.

The 2016 Census has confirmed that the rate of population ageing is greater than anyone had expected. Population ageing would certainly continue to be the Island's 'biggest threat' - if it were not for the onset of depopulation..

Part 3 of my analysis of the 2016 Census will look at the population decline in the Isle of Man from 2013 onwards.